Carbon pollution will rise without action: Government

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Carbon pollution in Australia will rise by 20 per cent if an emissions trading scheme is not introduced, a government report says.

Greenhouse gases rose by an average of 1.6 per cent annually between September 1998 and March 2009, the Department of Climate Change report, released on Sunday, said.

Without an emissions trading scheme, emissions would rise by 20 per cent above 2000 levels by 2020.

The Senate is almost certain to vote down the government’s plan for emissions trading - called the carbon pollution reduction scheme - on Thursday.

The scheme is the centrepiece of Labor’s plan to reduce Australia’s carbon emissions by a minimum five per cent - and possibly a maximum of 25 per cent depending on a global agreement - by 2020.

The report said a five per cent cut in emissions would require a 138 million-tonne reduction in carbon dioxide.

This is equivalent to halving the carbon pollution that comes from electricity generation and transport between 2011 and 2020, it said.

A 25 per cent cut would require carbon emission cuts of 249 million tonnes.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong says a 20 per cent increase in carbon pollution by 2020 will be the equivalent of more than doubling the number of cars presently on the road.