China is famously reticent with its greenhouse gas emissions data. But a new report penned by researchers at the says China’s greenhouse gas pollution could more than double in two decades.
Beijing has not released recent official data on greenhouse gas from the nation’s fast-growing use of coal, oil and gas. The latest information held by the , which administrates the Kyoto protocol, dates back to 1994.
Foreign estimates, most originating in the US, suggest the nation emitted greenhouse gases equivalent to 5.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2005, still short of the 7.2 billion tonnes emitted by the US.
In 2007, the International Energy Agency said , and some believe that milestone was reached. But until China releases its latest data, such numbers remain estimates.
Now, in a break with official reticence, researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and other major state-run institutes say that without dramatic counter-steps their nation’s emissions will at least match US emissions by 2020.
Environmental consequences
The report, , says that, by 2020, China’s burning of fossil fuels could emit between 9.2 and 10.6 billion tonnes of CO2, depending on varying scenarios for development and technology.
By 2030, those emissions may reach 11.4 to 14.7 billion tonnes, it says. Global carbon emissions in 2007 were estimated to be about 31.2 billion tonnes.
The report does not give its own estimate of China’s current CO2 emissions, but cites data from a US Department of Energy institute that put them at 5.1 billion tonnes in 2004. The US Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a government lab, recently estimated that the US emitted about 5.9 billion tonnes of carbon in 2007, while China emitted 6.6 billion tonnes.
The report warns that inaction in the face of this projected growth in emissions will have drastic environmental consequences. Yet it also says economic development must not be hobbled.
“No matter how historical responsibility is defined, our country’s development path cannot repeat the unconstrained emissions of developed countries’ energy use,” states the Chinese-language report. “We must soon prepare and plan ahead to implement emissions reduction concepts and measures in a long-term and stable energy development strategy.”
The main author, Wei Yiming, was not immediately available for comment on the findings and why they appeared now.
Compromise expected
The study may add to the increasing pressure that is being placed on China and other developing countries to accept . Beijing will be at the heart of efforts to forge a treaty to succeed the first phase of the Kyoto protocol, which expires at the end of 2012. The new treaty is expected to be agreed by the end of 2009.
Developing nations are not currently asked to limit their emissions at all under the Kyoto protocol. However, this is one reason for which the US government has refused to ratify the protocol and there is little doubt that China and other developing nations will have to accept some form of compromise in post-Kyoto negotiations.
The European Union this week said developing countries should accept a 15% to 30% cut in their greenhouse gas emissions from “business-as-usual” levels.
China has so far resisted emissions caps. It points out that its per capita emissions are much lower than those of rich countries. Developing nations also say developed nations bear historical responsibility, pointing out that the bulk of the warming that is currently being documented is the result of past emissions from rich nations.
Beijing officials have also often said they will not sacrifice hard-won economic development to greenhouse gas caps, a statement which is repeated in this latest report.
By Catherine Brahic and Reuters
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