Point Carbon sees carbon trade in 2009 seen rising 20 percent

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The global carbon market in 2009 will grow by 20 percent over 2008 in terms of volume, predicts Norwegian energy and environmental markets research group Point Carbon.

Point Carbon forecasts that 5.9 billion tonnes (gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) will trade this year, compared to 4.9 gt in 2008, an increase of 20 percent, according to a recent report called: Carbon Market Analyst: Outlook for 2009.

However, this increase represents a stabilisation near the transaction volumes seen in the second half of 2008 and therefore indicates a levelling off in terms of volume traded.

The global CO2e market this year, according to Point Carbon, will be worth €62.6 billion, down 32 percent compared to €92 billion in 2008, representing the first year of contraction in terms of market value since the start of carbon trading.

The European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme maintains its dominant position as the world’s largest carbon market with a 24 percent increase in trade over last year, to 3.8 Gt, primarily due to increased spot trading activity and despite lower emissions. However, the value of the EU ETS market, like the global carbon market as a whole, will drop significantly to €45.2 billion, a reduction of 33 percent on 2008.