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Continued economic backlash brings the CO2 price down to mid 2007 levels, Euro 15 and for sCER 13,80. Though for the longer term a price recovery is expected, we haven’t seen the 2008 price floor yet! That could come lower than Euro 15 next month, that was noted by IdeaCarbon as a floor.
The minimum regarded price for CDM-sCER is seen as the buffer to keep EUAs up. Nevertheless some see a floor at 5-10, other even expect 0. ABN-AMRO pointed at the fact that since banking of suplus EUAS is allowed to after 2012, the prive will not come to a single digit number.
For 2009 analists are optimistic, as power companies start to build up their compliance position for that year. Société Generale expects a price of 21-26 Euro. Pointcarbon 22 Euro.
As we can see, also the CO2 price dropped during the market crashes on Sept 11/13 and 28/30 to
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- EUA Prices Plummet in July
- Second Phase EUA Prices Bite into Profits of Power Generators
- Carbon trading sector ‘could lead economic recovery’
- Global Recession Reaches Carbon Market – EU ETS Shortfall To Drop By 44% Due To Recession, Says IDEAcarbon