Carbon trade to reach $670bn in 2013

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After a recession-driven dip in activity this year, the global carbon market is forecast to grow 68 per cent a year up to 2013, according to business analysts SBI.

In a report about to be released, “Carbon Emissions Trading Markets Worldwide”, SBI estimates the carbon trade will reach $669 billion by 2013. This assumes a federal US cap-and-trade scheme starts in 2012, which could be worth $117bn in its second year.

SBI says the value of carbon trading on world markets reached $118bn last year, but will slip to $84bn this year on the back of shrinking economic activity and emissions. Analysts Point Carbon estimate the value of the global carbon market in 2008 was $125bn.

There has been 256 per cent compounded annual growth in carbon trade since 2004, the report says, the year before the EU Emissions Trading Scheme began. The EU ETS is by far the biggest component of the world market, accounting for around three-quarters of the value of traded carbon in 2008.

The value of carbon markets is generally calculated from combined value of transactions in primary and secondary trade and across both mandatory and voluntary markets.

SBI estimates of global carbon market size, by value:

2008
$118 bn
($125 bn - Point Carbon)

2009
$84 bn

2013
$669 bn  (incl. $117bn from US cap and trade)