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Estimates of the amount by which Japan could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 differ substantially in calculations made by a research body affiliated with the Economy, Industry and Trade Ministry and another by the Environment Ministry, it has been learned.
The Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) calculated the nation could achieve a 9 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. However, the Environment Ministry-affiliated National Institute for Environmental Studies said 25 percent was achievable.
The two calculations were among estimations made by five research institutes presented at a meeting of a government committee tasked with determining a CO2 emissions cut target for 2020. The cuts would form part of a framework of measures aimed at tackling global warming that could come into effect after expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.
The research institutes made their estimates based on various factors, including the cost of introducing energy-saving technologies.
The divergent results suggest that the committee, led by former Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui, has a tough road ahead.
The RITE said the CO2 reduction goal should be 3 percent below the 1990 level, which would represent a 9 percent reduction of all greenhouse gas emissions, taking into consideration the burden Japan should take on compared to other countries. It added that it would be unrealistic to aim for a higher target. It noted that the reduction would be very costly for Japan, where energy-saving technologies and measures have already been widely adopted.
On the other hand, the National Institute for Environmental Studies said technically it would be possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a whole by 25 percent if maximum efforts were made, such as substantially increasing the amount of electricity generated using solar or wind power.
The two research institutes explained that their estimations greatly differed from each other for reasons such as differing estimates of future electric power demand and calculations regarding steel industry production levels in the future
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